Is Gold and Silver rally over ?

As per our blog on 28th January 2026 . We gave cautious stance on Gold and Silver as there was Euphoria in India and around globe as prices rising continuously.

Gold prices are now down 25% from the peak in January.
MCX gold today trades at around 1.45 Lakh per 10 gm compared to the peak of around 1.9 Lakh in Jan this year. Gold is now on track for its 4th straight monthly fall.
 
Big Question: Will gold prices fall further?
Its possible because of strong US dollar, high bond yields and expectations of US interest Rate hikes.
 
But the bigger point for retail investor is this :
Every asset class moves in cycles… It’s important to understand two things
 
1. Do not chase trends you will almost always end up getting in at the peak of the cycle.
 
2. Diversify your Assets across different asset classes because absolutely no one can predict which asset class will perform in which cycle.
 
We always believe Multi Asset strategy is the Answer. Where fund manager invests in multiple assets including gold and silver, global equities, Indian equities, and Bonds. Plus Rebalance between different asset classes without any Take burden as per section 10 (23D).

Blog by Mr. Santosh G Akerkar for educational and awareness purposes.

Best Regards,
Santosh Akerkar

Good Option For FD Investors, SBI Conservative Hybrid Fund

Conservative hybrid funds are aimed at investors seeking relatively lower volatility than Equity heavy funds while retaining Limited equity exposure for potential upside.

In line with regulatory mandate, these schemes invests predominantly in debt with smaller equity allocation.

The category may appeal to cautious investors and savers with medium term needs of three to five years who are unwilling to take sharp equity market swings.

Within this category SBI Conservative Hybrid follows relatively higher yielding debt strategy than many of its peers.

The firm has generally maintained close to 25% in equity and 75% in Debt/Fixed Income.

Active Duration

On the debt side, the fund seeks returns through a hike of interest rate calls and higher interest income from selected corporate bonds. The fund generally keeps its Macaulay duration, a measure of the average time taken to receive bond cash flow within two to five year range. Its currently near the shorter end at around 2.5 years.

High Yield Opportunity
A key source of additional yield is the funds exposure to corporate bonds rated below AAA. These currently make up about 35% of the portfolio and may rise to 45% when there is opportunities.

The strategy seeks to earn the return yield offered by corporate bonds over government securities in return for taking higher issuer risk.

Flexicap Strategy

The equity portfolio is measured against the BSE 500. Its typically holds around 40 stocks and can invest across large mid and small cap companies. The funds equity strategy aims to identify stocks with strong earning potential, robust financials, high governance standards and sound ESG policies.

Currently the equity portfolio has a strong small cap tilt with exposure close to funds stated upper limit of 50% of its equity portion.
According to us, recent corrections have created stock specific opportunities in small caps after sharp declines in several companies.
The equity allocation is currently fully invested with the fund maintaining close to the maximum permissible 25% equity exposure and negligible cash holdings on the equity side.

Performance

Over five year rolling periods, observed during past seven years, the fund delivered an average annualized return of 11%.
Given its sizeable exposure to lower rated debt and its small cap tilt within equities. The fund may suit investors willing to accept moderate credit and equity risk with an investment horizon of at least five years.

Why Invest?

  • Flexicap oriented equity allocation
  • Ranked in top quartile across time frame
  • Suitable for investors looking good option against 5 year FD.

 

Blog by Mr Santosh G Akerkar for educational and knowledge purposes only.

Best Regards,
Santosh Akerkar

Time to Buy Rupee Assets Not Bet Against Them.

The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) Advantage

The rupees REER at the end of April 2026 was at 89.7 as per RBI’s data. It is estimated   to have slopped below 88 when USD INR breached 96.9 on 20th May 2006.

To put this in perspective, this is the most competitive the currency has been outside of two major structural crises. The 2013 twin deficit crises (driven by crude oil sustaining above $ 100 for three consecutive years) and 2008 Global financial crises.

On a trade – weighted basis , the currency is fundamentally undervalued creating strong margin of safety.

Decades – Low Inflation differentials

Indias inflation differential with the US is at one of its narrowest levels in modern history. Historically this spread averaged around 3.5% to 4% Today, comparing Indias core CPI with US core PCE, a highly stable comparative metric, shows this gap has compressed drastically to the 1% to 2% range.

Balance of Payment Resilience

Current anxieties surrounding Indias BOP are driven less by actual realized external stress and more by expectations of a permanent crude oil reset above $ 120 per barrel. Unless oil permanently anchors at those elevated levels, the BOP weight face pressure but it should avoid the severe distress seen from 2011 to 2013.

Indias structural buffers are Massively under appreciated.

Valuation comfort in Large Caps

Foreign portfolio Investment (FPI) and foreign Direct investment (FDI) flows have been muted, largely a consequence of high aggregate valuations in Indian Equities. But beneath the headline indices, the large cap segments, which traditionally absorbs over two – thirds of net FPI purchases has quietly derated several heavy weights are now trading below their long-term average multiples select Equity segments are available below 15X forward earnings with some valuations dipping to covid or GFC lows. This valuations comfort is highly likely to place floor under FPI selling, especially since underline business quality remains pristine. Generating returns on Equity (ROE) upwards of 18% to 20% is rarity in emerging markets. Yet to tier businesses continue to deliver it. So Indian large cap particularly top 10 (market capitalizations) looks very attractive.

The Cyclical Nature of FX Reserves

The RBI’s headline FX reserves hare declined by $ 29 billion this year. Accompanying this is apprehension regarding the outstanding USD forward book, which stands at roughly 13% of total reserves, potentially reducing usable liquidity while this warrants observations it is not anomaly. The forward book was at 14% in march 2025 And 11% in march 2013. The RBI actively manages this tool across cycles even a net forward purchase position of 11% back in March 2022.

Currencies,interests Rates and flows are inherently cyclical. Betting against rupee at these depressed REER levels and tight inflation differentials is a low probability trade. Conversely the data suggests it is time to allocate towards Rupee denominated assets across both equities and bonds.

Blog by Mr.Santosh G Akerkar for educational and knowledge purposes only.

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